Study shows massive rise in GP demand, amid drop in their availability

The number of patients per GP has soared by 9%, rising to a massive 32% when taking chronic conditions into account, a new study in England by University of Manchester researchers has found.

The increase—identified from data between 2015 and 2022—occurred alongside an overall drop in GP supply of 2.7% over the same period, due to falling contractual hours.

The study found the median contracted full-time equivalent (FTE) for each fully qualified GP fell from 0.80 to 0.69 between 2015 and 2022.

This reduction was driven primarily by male GPs, who have significantly reduced the hours they are contracted to work from 0.99 to 0.85 FTE.

However, the figure for male GPs remains above the levels of their female counterparts, whose hours fell slightly from 0.67 to 0.65 FTE.

Practices in the most deprived areas had 17% more patients and 19% more chronic conditions per GP FTE, compared with the least deprived areas.

All regions reported more chronic conditions per GP FTE than London, which had less demand for GPs.

Lead author of the study, published in the British Journal of General Practice , is Dr. Rosa Parisi.

Dr. Parisi said, "The NHS in England is facing a year-on-year reduction of the total working hours by general practitioners.

"This decrease is down to early retirement , high levels of GP turnover and low retention, insufficient number of newly trained GPs joining the workforce, and lack of overseas recruitment.

"But reduction in working hours is also a major factor. We show that while GP supply decreased by 2.7% from 2015 to 2022, practice population increased by 9%, while the demand, as measured by the total presence of chronic conditions, increased by 32%.

"The largest contributor to the overall decrease in supply was a fall of 8.7% in GP's contractual hours of GPs, especially male GPs.

"We're not entirely sure why male GPs are reducing their hours, but policies are desperately needed to incentivize them to work longer."

She added, "We fear GPs are likely to be unwilling or unable to face more of the intense day to day pressures in UK primary care.

"However, policies to reduce administrative workload, increasing support by allied health care professionals could incentivize GPs to increase their work hours ."

Senior author Professor Evan Kontopantelis said, "In 2015 and 2019, the government promised 5,000 more GPs by 2020 and an additional 6,000 GPs by 2024, respectively.

"Though there was a rise in GP headcount of 5.9%, specifically 2,154 GPs between 2015 and 2022, the promised increase has not happened. That is why the change in working patterns of GPs makes the challenges facing primary care even more acute."

He added, "Our results also highlight an existing disparity in GP supply between practices located in the least and most deprived areas.

"Practices in the most deprived areas had 17% more patients and 19% more chronic conditions per GP FTE, compared with the least deprived areas.

"So, in addition to policies aimed to recruit and retain more GPs, it is also necessary to incentivize GPs to work and remain in deprived areas to achieve more equitable levels of care—something easier said than done, we acknowledge."