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Stock-market reaction up for debate as bets on a big Fed rate cut refuse to die

William Watts
~1 minute

Market Extra

Key question: Would a 50 basis point interest rate cut reassure or unsettle markets?

Last Updated: First Published:

Bond traders aren’t giving up on bets Jerome Powell and Federal Reserve policymakers will deliver a jumbo interest rate cut. Photo: MarketWatch photo illustration/iStockphoto, Getty Images

It was supposed to be settled by now.

The Federal Reserve is virtually certain to deliver an interest-rate cut when it concludes its policy meeting on Wednesday, but the size of that cut remains far from certain. Fed-funds futures traders have priced in a knife-edge decision between a standard cut of 25 basis points or an outsize move of 50 basis points.