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History says Fed interest-rate cut sets up ‘crapshoot’ for stocks

William Watts
~1 minute

The Tell

History says Fed interest-rate cut sets up ‘crapshoot’ for stock-market investors

The 2-week period after a cut has been a binary guide to ‘decent gains with low risk or limited gains with high risk’: SentimenTrader

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History doesn’t offer clear guidance on the path for stocks once the Fed kicks off a rate-cut cycle. Photo: Getty Images/iStockphoto

What happens to the stock market after the Federal Reserve begins cutting interest rates? The unhelpful answer is that it depends.

“Opinions aside, the imminent cut in the fed-funds rate has been a crapshoot for investors. There was no consistent pattern in forward returns after significant hiking cycles,” said Jason Goepfert, senior research analyst at SentimenTrader, in a Tuesday note.